H2’s handle estimates are based on bets struck between a retail player and a commercial sportsbook, and do not include casual bets between friends or office sweepstakes.
While the American Gaming Association (AGA) notes that the total addressable market for sportsbook operators has grown by around 45 million people from Super Bowl LV, H2’s figures show the vast majority of handle is likely to be staked offshore.
It estimates that handle for regulated sportsbooks will total $1.9bn, a figure far outstripped by the $5.1bn to be wagered via unlicensed sites.
However, the fact that 27.3% of bets will be placed legally is a significant jump from 2021, when 13.7% of bets were placed onshore.
In terms of who could win, the Los Angeles Rams are typically 1/2 favourites to take the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Since 1991, 64.5% of Super Bowls have been won by the favourites, with 38.7% of games seeing that team covering the spread.
Their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals, have “come out of nowhere”, with odds of the franchise winning the Super Bowl as wide as 200-1 after week two of the NFL season. The Rams, on the other hand, saw their odds start at 20-1, then almost immediately drop to 12-1 after adding quarterback Matthew Stafford to its roster.
After player winnings are paid out, H2 projects onshore gross win in the range of $190m to $230m. However, should the Rams beat the Bengals by 4-points, returns could fall as low as $120m to $125m.
But given the level of free bets operators are offering customers, H2 expects the states with legal sports betting to be Sunday’s biggest winners, with around $32.5m and $37.5m in betting tax receipts to be generated.